Modeling coronavirus: ‘Uncertainty is the only certainty’

SEATTLE (AP) — The latest statistical models show a glimmer of hope, forecasting fewer deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic before August. But there’s huge uncertainty in these models because health officials are still trying to get a handle on how the virus acts, how carefully people stick with social distancing and other restrictions, and treatment of the disease. No model is perfect, but experts say the good ones give a glimpse into the future however nebulous, and governments need that to plan. They say it’s the best we can do without a time machine. And we just have to live with uncertainty. It’s the only certainty there is.

Below is information released by the State of South Dakota April 3, 2020, showing current data and infection projections.